MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0360
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 260915Z - 261400Z

SUMMARY...SOME EXPANSION OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME REPEATING OF CELLS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL MO AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW AND
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER THE LAST 1
TO 2 HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG A RATHER SHARP
LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40
KTS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF RATHER STRONG WARM
AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH COUPLED WITH AT LEAST SOME MODESTLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS
WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION GENERALLY FOCUSING IN A SW/NE FASHION
ALONG THE BEST THETA-E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR REPEATING CELL ACTIVITY.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THESE TOTALS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39139094 39079058 38769023 38299037 37599082
            37129155 36929268 37049376 37319407 37689369
            37979284 38519180