MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0375
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 282040Z - 290000Z

SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION TRACKING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
AS MUCH AS 4.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THAT THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 4.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY OVER WEST CENTRAL TN MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AL AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GOES-16
CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED COOLING TOPS OVER WESTERN KY...WHERE THE KPAH
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THE
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN A
PORTION OF WESTERN KY THAT DID NOT HAVE ITS AIRMASS OVERTURNED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION.

THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KY INTO
WEST CENTRAL TN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR
2.00 INCHES. IN THIS AXIS...THE KPAH RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1.50/2.00 INCHES OVER CALDWELL COUNTY KY. STORM
MOTION VECTORS FROM THE MOST RECENT RAP SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
WOULD TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TN...CLOSE TO OR JUST WEST OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR INDICATED THAT THE CONVECTION COULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AS IT CROSSES WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN INTO A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST AL. SHOULD THE CONVECTION REMAINED SCATTERED...THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE FLASH FLOODING EARLIER TODAY...FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36728758 36378681 34078546 33768586 34588717
            35188764 36078813 36518808