MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0380
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 302330Z - 010230Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD
PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES IN
PLACES LIKE THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FORMING IN THE PRESENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT VIA AN MCV OVER CENTRAL KS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE IN AN
AXIS OF 1.75/2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). IN THIS AXIS... THE KTOP
RADAR IS INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES OVER
MARSHALL COUNTY KS INTO PAWNEE COUNTY NE.

THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR CHANNEL SHOWED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR
MINUS 70 CELSIUS OVER NORTHEAST KS...IN A RIBBON OF 3000-4000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV TRACKING NORTH
NORTHEAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO ADD ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH 01/01Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAP INTO THE DEEP
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST MO...INCLUDING
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

THESE RATES WERE SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RECENT HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR...WITH LOCAL 2.00/3.00 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS...MAINLY WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY COULD END UP
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT TRAINING IN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40859427 40309374 38529466 37689595 37629662
            37619663 38789695 40209620 40719538