MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0382
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1137 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KS/NORTHWESTERN MO/SOUTHEASTERN NEB...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 010305Z - 010635Z

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONCERN REMAIN AS LOCALIZED CONVECTION
HAS HUNG UP NORTH OF KANSAS CITY MO AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS. CB
TOWERS CONTINUE TO ERUPT ALONG A WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A NUMBER OF
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A
WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE SITTING JUST NORTH OF I-70 ACROSS KS HAS
PROVIDED A STEADY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
AMPLE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SIT ATOP THIS BOUNDARY WITH 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE INDICATED VIA THE 02Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
A PAIR OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PROVEN TO HANG UP
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING REPORTED JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY MO
AND AROUND HILL CITY MO WHERE 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN AN HOUR.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THIS MENTIONED BOUNDARY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OBSERVED IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE PER GPS DATA. IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD APPROACHING
MCS...WOULD EXPECT RESIDUAL ISSUES TO PERSIST BEFORE THE COMPLEX
SHOULD BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS.

UNFORTUNATELY RECENT CAMS HAVE FAILED TO SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MCS. THIS INCLUDES THE 00Z CYCLES OF HRW-ARW AND
HRW-NMM-B SOLUTIONS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASED SOLELY ON
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT HISTORY OF THESE STORMS. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS BUT
OBSERVED RATES HAVE EASILY EXCEEDED SUCH THRESHOLDS. MOVING
FORWARD...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES TO PERSIST WITH
NUMBERS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ONCE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES FORWARD PROPAGATING.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40909571 40279516 39279433 38929478 39179608
            39199828 39079938 39009984 38970019 39060035
            39260035 39400028 39959981 40189805 40579668