MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0386
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 020025Z - 020325Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN WV INTO
SOUTHERN OH HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON IN AN AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG
RUNNING THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE IS DEEP IN THE REGION...WITH
THE MOST RECENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 2.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR IN PLACE) WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN).

THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND CONTINUES TO MOVE THE CONVECTION SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...THOUGH THE PROPAGATION VECTORS AREA WEAK...AS THE
CONVECTION REMAINS UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR
TERM...TRAINING OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
02/02Z...WHEN THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EXHAUSTED. BEFORE
THAT TIME... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION FROM
EASTERN KY WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING...AS LOCAL
2.00/3.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH SHOWS
THE CONVECTION WEAKENING BETWEEN 02/02Z AND 02/03Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39368245 39118188 38698167 37828185 37558232
            37678297 37838315 38478343 39288303