Graphic for MPD #0391

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0391
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHWEST MN TO ADJACENT SOUTHEAST SD...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 031214Z - 031514Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH TRAINING LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 CLEAR IR CHANNEL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN WITH REPORTS OF FLOODING ONGOING.

ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. 

RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 850MB CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45
KT.  THE CONFLUENCE HAS ALSO LEAD TO INCREASE IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE RAP FORECAST OF 1.75-2 INCHES. 

AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA AND
GIVEN THE SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST MN. 

THE 8/9/120/11Z VERSIONS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH HAVE BEEN SHOWING CLUSTERS OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
15Z.  WITH THE DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET MID DAY THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH RUNS ARE
INDICATING THE EVENING SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44929569 44869503 44819399 44709362 44289384
            43959456 43749522 43629597 43599645 44019703
            44499686 44899662


Last Updated: 814 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2018