MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0403
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 050640Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.5 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE
WANING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH KLXN REPORTING
2.22 IN/HR ENDING AT 06Z. OVERALL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING OUTFLOW PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SOUTH.
AN MCV WAS IDENTIFIED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN REFLECTIVITY LOOPS
AND RAP ANALYSES...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER 700 MB FLOW LOCATED TO
ITS SOUTHEAST HELPING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF TRAINING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCV TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WANE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS THROUGH 10Z...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY STRONGER 700 MB FLOW NEAR THE MCV AND UPPER
LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERTICAL LIFT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 10 OR 11Z.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO
BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING CONVECTION TOO EARLY RESULTING IN
LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MORE SENSITIVE REGIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO KANSAS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42489912 41969770 41119689 40269682 39669733
            39379845 39409951 39479986 39940016 40800006
            41720031 42330011