MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0404
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
708 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 051105Z - 051505Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF RATHER
SLOW-MOVING AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
KS THAT IS GRADUALLY SETTLING DOWN TO THE SOUTH. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AS PER GOES-16 CLEAN IR IMAGERY HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN
TENDING TO COOL A BIT OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND THE
CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
COURTESY OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE REGION.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF NEAR 2000 J/KG AND AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY CONFLUENT 850 MB FLOW
NOSING UP ACROSS WESTERN KS. THE CLOUD-BEARING INFLOW IS RATHER
WEAK AT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS...AND WITH INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO BE
EXHAUSTED...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO TEND TO WEAKEN
TOWARD MID-MORNING.

NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 00Z
ARW2 APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...AND IT SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AT LEAST LOCALLY...AND AIDED BY RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH
AS 2 INCHES/HR. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST AS A
RESULT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40079950 40029914 39599917 38939955 38110005
            37840041 37900098 38240104 39000080 39620042
            40019982