MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0410
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
650 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO
VALLEY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 052249Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN AN
ARC FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS...ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO...INTO PARTS
OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.  THESE STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER CERTAIN AREAS...WHICH POSES A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.  THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WERE
PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  A TRAILING BAND OF
CONVECTION EXTENDED BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS.  STORMS IN THIS
TRAILING BAND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES BUT WILL TEND TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN CONVECTION IN THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED AREAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES STILL
AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM
ORGANIZATION. BROAD 15 KNOT LOW-LEVEL (925-850MB) INFLOW SHOWN ON
REGIONAL VWPS UPSTREAM OF CURRENT CONVECTION (KIND AND KILX)
SHOULD ALSO SUSTAIN CONVECTION NEAR THE CURRENT AXIS OF
DEVELOPMENT FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA...AND A VEERING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROMOTE MORE TRAINING INTO THE EVENING.

GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (PWS AROUND 2
INCHES)...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN RATES AROUND
2 IN/HR...PARTICULARLY IF TRAINING STORM MOTIONS CAN BE REALIZED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING
BANDS FAVORABLY ALIGN WITH URBANIZED AREAS.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41778092 41507960 40497917 39318024 38648126
            38378370 38928700 39338913 40808903 41568740
            41288504