MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0411
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
914 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060113Z - 060700Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THE SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY
PRODUCE RAIN RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. AREAS AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN AS
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND IN A REGION
WHERE CONVERGENCE OF DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW PEAKED.  THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SLOW-MOVING GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL FLOW
CENTERED ON COLORADO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLOW STORM MOTION THAT
RESULTS IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWATS ARE CONCENTRATED FURTHER
EAST (PARTIALLY AS A FUNCTION OF ELEVATION)...BUT A BROAD AREA OF
EASTERLY 15-20 KNOT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTED BASED ON REGIONAL
RADAR VWPS AND 00Z SOUNDINGS. THIS MAY PLACE SOME OF THE
CONVECTION INTO MORE POPULATED AREAS...AND ALSO INTO SOME PLACES
WITH RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTWARD OUT
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN RATES AROUND 1
IN/HR IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IF
STORM MERGERS AND/OR MOTION CAN FAVORABLY STALL HEAVY RAIN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME IN A GIVEN LOCATION. RAIN RATES SUCH AS
THIS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AROUND BURN SCARS.

THROUGH 07Z...THE STRONGEST HI-RES MODEL QPF SIGNAL IS FROM NEAR
LIMON CO TO NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS CO AND FROM SANTA FE NM TO
AREAS EAST OF ABQ. 

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40400271 38420188 36140338 34880514 34810624
            35610784 36730804 37250602 38680465 39730417