MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0429
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
553 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 100952Z - 101400Z

SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PERHAPS
WESTERN MN. THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD WANE BEYOND
14Z.

DISCUSSION...0930Z RADAR IMAGERY FROM KBIS SHOWED A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EAST OF
BISMARCK TO FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A FORWARD
PROPAGATING COMPONENT AND RELATED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHWEST
FLANK...WHICH JUST CROSSED BISMARCK AND WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEASTWARD. ELEMENTS OF TRAINING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A 2.37
IN/HR REPORT NEAR TAPPEN IN THE VICINITY OF I-94 ENDING 09Z.
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...ROOTED NEAR 700 MB PER RAP
SOUNDINGS WITH PERIODS OF TRAINING NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW NEAR I-94 IN CENTRAL ND INTERSECTS THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE LINE.

MUCAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO CENTRAL
SD AS OF 09Z. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
RESERVOIR NOT ADVANCING MUCH INTO MINNESOTA PRIOR TO 15Z. GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS OF REDUCING
AVAILABLE CAPE...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUT PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO FAR WRN MN.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47369844 47079715 46639616 45539579 44829679
            44819825 45219935 45920017 46350050 46720048
            47319980