MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0444
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ... WEST CENTRAL NM...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131815Z - 132315Z

SUMMARY...SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND .75-1.5" TOTALS IN SHORT DURATION
POSE NUMEROUS BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW AND THREE CHANNEL GOES-16 WV SUITE OF
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NARROWING BUT FAIRLY STATIC BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
FROM S NV ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM TO SW NM.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY
EVIDENT IN THE LOWER LAYERS FROM 8H-6H CONFIRMED WITH EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS.  ADDITIONALLY THROUGH THE ZONE, LIMIT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED EARLY MORNING INSOLATION
AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A BAND OF UNCAPPED  1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPES
FROM YAVAPAI TO GRANT/HILDALGO COUNTIES WITH HIGHER VALUES WEST
INTO THE GILA, MOGOLLON AND BLACK RANGES.  AS SUCH, VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC DENOTE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH
CBS OVER THESE RANGES AND TCU AS FAR WEST AS THE HUALPAI AND
AQUARIUS RANGES IN WEST CENTRAL AZ AND A FEW TCU EVEN SOUTH OF THE
PUEBLO VALLEY. 

STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGESTS SMALL NE TO SW CELL
MOTIONS BUT BELOW 5 KTS WITH WEAK INFLOW FROM THE VALLEY...STILL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SCOURED A BIT FROM PRIOR DAYS WITH VALUES OF IN
THE VICINITY OF 1.25-1.4" ALONG THIS SPINE THOUGH THE WEAK INFLOW
WOULD ADVECT SOME HIGHER/DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONVECTION ON THE EXPECTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE INITIAL
CELLS.  STILL THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND CONVERSION IN THESE PULSE
CELLS POSE LOCALIZED .75-1" TOTALS INITIALLY WITH UP TO 1.5"
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVERTURN
BROADER AREAS MORE QUICKLY AS WELL (THOUGH THAT SHOULD BE LATER IN
THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME).  GIVEN THIS AND HARD PAN/ HYDROPHOBIC
SURFACES...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36171210 36061167 35221111 35001085 34671048
            34210910 34670863 34890817 34650757 34320735
            33740725 32500762 32300809 32760931 32941009
            33391128 33941247 34511295 35231307 35811265