MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0446
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
607 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KS...EXT SOUTHEAST NEB...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 132206Z - 140200Z

SUMMARY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT/MST ENVIRONMENT BUT SLOW MOTIONS
SUGGEST RATES OVER 2.5"/HR POSSIBLE LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING ON HARD PAN/HYDROPHOBIC SOIL CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DENOTES A VERY SHARP MST
CONVERGENCE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM OSBOURNE
COUNTY KS TO NEMAHA/RICHARDSON NEB.  UNCHARACTERISTICALLY THE
DEEPEST SFC MOISTURE WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
ANAFRONTAL WITH STRONG 15-20KT WINDS CONVERGING TO WEAKER SFC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN NORTH CENTRAL KS...WHERE TDS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S. THE SOUTHERN AIRMASS SFC FIELDS ARE MORE MUDDLED
GIVEN EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS AND OTHER OUTFLOWS BUT ABOVE
THE SFC 850MB FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND NEAR DIRECTLY OPPOSED TO
850MB FLOW.  AS SUCH GOES-16 VISIBLE/IR SHOWS RAPID
COOLING/DEVELOPMENT WITH TOPS TO -75C QUICKLY.  WHILE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS HIGHLY CONVERGENT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND IS WEAK ABOUT 5-15KTS FROM 7-3H...AS SUCH
CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING IF NOT STATIONARY ALLOWING FOR THAT
STRONG FLUX TO RAPIDLY RAIN OUT.  RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.5"/HR ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME 3-3.5"+ POSSIBLY  EXCEEDING THE 1HR FFG VALUES
(2-3" RANGE).  DRY CONDITIONS WOULD TYPICALLY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR
BUT GIVEN THE LENGTH OF DROUGHT...HARD PAN/LESS PERMEABLE SOILS
MAY EXIST TO SHED A BULK OF THE RAIN QUICKLY FURTHER SUGGESTING
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO.  PROPAGATION
VECTORS SUPPORT SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT BUT WITH SOME CROSS
TRACKS FOR TRAINING MAY POSE SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASED TOTALS
ALONG THE AREA OF CONCERN.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40579584 40149524 39519580 38909800 38839967
            39319979 39729834 40309679