MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0448
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NRN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 140459Z - 141000Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE JUST NORTH OF A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH RAIN RATES AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS STALL AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...FOCUSED AREA OF CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
SUSTAINED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING SOUTH TOWARD NRN OKLAHOMA RIGHT
NOW...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET JUST ALOFT (925-850MB) WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE NOSE POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO WICHITA (KICT).
RAP ANALYSIS PLACES A MUCAPE MAXIMUM JUST SOUTH OF THIS (2000-2500
J/KG)...AND A REGIONAL MAX IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (2.0 TO 2.3
INCHES) DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. 850-300MB MEAN WINDS AND CORFIDI VECTORS BOTH
HAVE REDUCED MAGNITUDES (BELOW 10 KNOTS) AND ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST. THEREFORE... CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD HAVE A GRADUAL
EASTWARD DRIFT... BUT THIS WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND SHOULD ENABLE A
FAIRLY LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVY RAIN IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS.

THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RAIN RATES OF 2 IN/HR SEEM ACHIEVABLE. THE
00Z HREF HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE KPTT-KICT (PRATT TO WICHITA) CORRIDOR...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHERE THE LARGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE
CURRENTLY SITUATED. THEREFORE... THIS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE AND
SHOULD BE THE AREA WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY...
PARTICULARLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN DRIFT OVER THE IMMEDIATE
WICHITA AREA.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38339783 38159657 37049676 36599832 36729973
            37919960