MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0468
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
629 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...FAR SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162228Z - 170300Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal convection will continue to expand and lead to
a flash flood threat across the higher terrain this afternoon into
mid evening.


DISCUSSION...Although largely devoid of the shortwave energy that
was present over the weekend, showers and thunderstorms were
nevertheless becoming more numerous early this afternoon across
areas where the coupling of orographics (upslope flow) and
thermodynamic environment (deep layer moisture and instability)
are most favorable. MUCAPES of 1500-2500+ j/kg along with PWAT
values of 1.25-1.75" were present within the MPD area, and
although the weak deep-layer shear profile will once again favor
short duration, pulse-type convection with a significantly limited
risk for cell training, rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches within
an hour will nonetheless pose a localized flash flood threat
through 0300Z -- especially over burn scars and/or areas that had
more recently received heavy rainfall.

Hurley

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35771250 34991069 34570944 33520844 32900828
            32080847 31320903 31210976 31211057 31241127
            31641145 32541111 33351123 33771174 34111239
            34721332 35371354 35731319