MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0472
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 172050Z - 180150Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS. SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE
INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT.  MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING BY
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND HEATING OF THE TERRAIN.  RAP ANALYSIS IS
INDICATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER THIS REGION,
AND COMBINED WITH LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING.  THE MITIGATING FACTOR HERE IS THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT.

THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR SOME LOCAL ONE
INCH AMOUNTS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THIS RAIN
FALLS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND ESPECIALLY OVER ANY BURN
SCAR AREAS.

D. HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39420548 39410499 39370461 39150428 38900416
            38530411 38070410 37640354 37130335 36610344
            36290359 35680402 35280454 35060498 34950532
            34960565 35030600 35030644 34900695 35010752
            35500775 36100760 36460752 36820726 37030693
            37230643 37610622 38030612 38460606 38960621
            39220615 39380584