MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0476
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CTRL AR...WRN/SRN MO...NERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 180830Z - 181430Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM NEAR THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS REGION OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. RAIN RATES OF 2 IN/HR WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW-MOVING
STORMS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... GENERALLY IN A
ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW (925-850MB). HI-RES MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING... WITH QPF AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO
12Z. THIS MAY ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN MCV...EVIDENT
IN RADAR LOOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (NEAR KPNC AS OF 0830Z)
AND MOVING EAST. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD BE ELEVATED... AND WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED AROUND 925-850MB
WHERE THE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. RAP ANALYSIS HAS MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF OF THE OUTLINED AREA
WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

ALIGNED WITH THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS A PLUME OF PW
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER BOTH RAP ANALYSIS AND CIRA BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT. SEVERAL GPS OBSERVATIONS IN THIS REGION WERE AROUND 2
INCH PW VALUES. FURTHERMORE... CORFIDI VECTORS WERE ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND MAXIMUM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. IN TOTAL... THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WITH SOME LOCALIZED SWATHS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT... AND IF SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...MEG...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39909523 39559398 38499252 37499186 35989114
            34959132 34719261 35279361 36999418 38269474
            39419594