Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Areas affected...Colorado/New Mexico Rockies into the High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242206Z - 250330Z

SUMMARY...Scattered flash flooding will be possible from the
higher terrain of central Colorado/New Mexico into the High Plains
later this evening. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 in/hr are
expected with storm total of 1-2 inches, locally up to 3 inches by
03z.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and local radar imagery through 2145Z
showed numerous thunderstorms located from the Front Range of
central Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. These storms were
forming within a pool of anomalous moisture for the region with
surface dewpoints in the lower 60s noted across southeastern
Colorado and standardized anomalies for precipitable water of +1
to +2. MLCAPE values were estimated to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg per the most recent SPC mesoanalysis page east of the
mountains into the High Plains.

The region was situated on the west side of a surface ridge
(centered over eastern Nebraska) with southeasterly flow of noted
between the surface and about 750 mb. 850 mb VAD wind plots from
KFTG and KPUX were 10-15 kt at 2245Z but an increase in magnitude
is expected beyond 00Z allowing for increased low level moisture
transport into convection expected to move off of the higher
terrain into the Plains by 00Z. While eventual organization into
forward propagating segments will be possible per forecast Corfidi
Vectors, cell mergers and outflow collisions appear likely to
generate rainfall rates in excess of 1 in/hr at least briefly
before moving downstream. Given flash flood guidance values are
only 1 in/hr for roughly half of the area outlined by the MPD,
flash flooding is considered possible.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40070426 39790350 39300309 38330285 36310353
            35500463 35840567 36590541 37390543 38230572
            38670582 39300570 39870513