Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250203Z - 250503Z

Summary...A thunderstorm cluster continues drifting southeast
across northeast NM.  Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts
to 3" are expected through 05z.

Discussion...A thunderstorm cluster with a broad area of cold
cloud tops per Clean IR imagery is drifting southeast through
northeast NM under the base of a weak shortwave moving through
northern CO and ahead of another weak shortwave moving through
southern UT.  MU CAPE in the vicinity of the cluster is 2000-3000
J/kg.  Precipitable water values of 1-1.25" lie across the area. 
Effective bulk shear of ~25 kts is allowing the cluster to have
some level of organization.

The mesoscale guidance is not doing a good job with the placement
of this cluster of convection.  The 18z HREF probabilities of 1"+
an hour suggest that rain totals with the cluster should slowly
fade from here on out through 05z.  It is located in the middle of
the instability pool now and should continue dropping southeast to
east-southeast, though with increasing forward speed, reaching ~15
kts.  The breadth of the cluster should winnow with time.  Until
it weakens and/or picks up its pace, hourly rain totals to 2" with
local amounts of 3" are possible,

Roth

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35970547 35820445 35290399 34690418 34340475
            34230566 34820593 35530597