Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...eastern CO...western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270100Z - 270600Z

Summary...Several clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
organize through the evening hours. Some additional flash flooding
is possible considering heavy rainfall rates to near 2 inches/hr
and relatively wet antecedent conditions.

Discussion...The latest radar imagery shows multiple clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms organizing across northwest KS and
far eastern CO as an unstable and moist boundary layer, with
modest low level easterly/upslope flow, focuses across the High
Plains. Meanwhile, the convection is being strongly aided by 40 to
50 kts of effective bulk shear as stronger mid level northwest
flow overruns the region, and over the next few hours there will
be an opportunity for additional convective organization with a
few cell mergers and some larger scale growth as convection drops
generally down to the south across eastern CO and western KS.

Precipitable water values are as high as 1.2 to 1.3 inches, with
MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 j/kg. These will contribute to
rainfall rates that may approach 2 inches/hr. There has been heavy
rain over the last few days across areas of eastern CO and western
KS, and the additional convective rainfall will foster a threat of
flash flooding. Will continue to monitor.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40000011 39729936 39049905 37909933 37110036
            36970166 37060246 37370285 37940304 38750269
            39350149 39780076