Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...AZ...NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270125Z - 270630Z

Summary...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the next several hours. Additional flash flooding will be
likely.

Discussion...The latest GOES-16 10.3 micron clean IR imagery shows
clusters of very cold topped convection continuing to develop and
generally drop down to the south across areas of central and
eastern AZ, along with a large area of NM. The convection is
focusing within a moist environment with precipitable water values
of 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal. The convection has
been taking advantage of strong diurnal heating/surface-based
instability and orographics for the activity to be sustainable and
locally focused over the higher terrain.

Heavy rainfall rates of as much as 2 inches/hr will continue over
the next few hours as convection persists and gradually exhausts
the available instability across the region. Expect storm totals
through 06Z to be as much as 3 to 4 inches given the available
moisture and slow-cell motions.

Additional flash flooding will be likely given the forecast
amounts and heavy short-term rates, and there will be concerns
again on any area burn scars where runoff will be greatly enhanced.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36950394 36250346 35150351 34220468 32630542
            32080623 31950741 31810800 31370883 31350940
            31520994 32401030 33221093 33731164 34361197
            34981169 35291076 34550929 35020790 35990720
            36170579 36790474