Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Western OK...Northeast TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280229Z - 280759Z

SUMMARY...Organized MCS exiting eastern Colorado will track
towards the southeast across western Kansas and then western
Oklahoma through 8Z Saturday morning.  Flash flooding will be
possible in areas that receive repeated rounds of intense
convection with rates exceeding 2 inches per hour at times.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 infrared imagery and regional
RADAR mosaic depict organized convection moving out of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas, with an MCV noted on the western
edge of the heavy thunderstorm activity.  The latest RAP analysis
is indicating 1.3 to 1.8 inch PWs over this area, coupled with
1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE per the SPC mesoanalysis.  A modest
850mb southerly inflow will continue to feed moisture into this
MCS, along with ascent from 250mb right entrance dynamics from a
80kt jet streak over the central plains.  This will help to
sustain the complex through 8Z. 

In terms of the high-res guidance, the best signal for heavy
rainfall over the next several hours is over southwest Kansas and
the Oklahoma Panhandle.  However, the NBM and the WRF are
indicating the potential for this convection to remain robust
going into west-central Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle
during the early morning hours.  The ARW and NMMB appear to be too
localized with the extent of the heavier QPF. 

D. Hamrick
 

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38420085 38380022 38249969 37789899 37309855
            36919838 36539834 36139836 35739847 35379875
            35219911 35219956 35379999 35660056 35890085
            36180130 36450170 36820195 37370199 37970191
            38340148