Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Areas affected...Southwest NE...West-Central KS...North-Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290440Z - 290940Z

SUMMARY...Organized MCS exiting southwest Nebraska will track
towards the southeast across west-central Kansas and may approach
north-central Oklahoma through 930Z Saturday morning.  Flash
flooding will be possible in areas that receive repeated rounds of
intense convection with rates exceeding 2 inches per hour at
times.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 infrared imagery and regional
RADAR mosaic depict organized convection moving southeast across
northwestern Kansas, with an MCV noted on the northwestern edge of
the heavy thunderstorm activity.  The latest RAP analysis is
indicating PWs on the order of 1.75 inches over this area, and
potentially increasing to near 2 inches as the nocturnal low level
jet results in moisture pooling along a low level frontal zone. 
This is also in conjunction with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE per
the latest SPC mesoanalysis.  An upper level jet maxima centered
over Nebraska and Iowa will also aid in ascent over this region
through the early morning hours.  Much of this same region
received heavy rainfall last night and this is leading to wet
antecedent conditions and locally reduced flash flood guidance
values, especially across the western third of Kansas.  Flash
flooding is possible where convective elements train and
repeatedly back-build with this MCS.

D. Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40449980 40219901 39009810 37869736 36969735
            36549765 36489844 36499941 36630146 38470140
            39440176 39840169 40180140 40400065