Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018
Areas affected...Southeast KS and East-Central OK
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 290855Z - 291255Z
SUMMARY...Flash flooding will remain a possibility on a localized
scale through 8am local time as an organized MCS tracks toward the
southeast, especially across areas that have repeated rounds of
thunderstorms with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 infrared imagery and regional
Doppler RADAR mosaic continue to depict a well organized MCS
tracking southeast across central Kansas and into north-central
Oklahoma. Although the main complex is fairly progressive, there
have been multiple instances of back-building convection over the
past few hours.
The latest RAP analysis is indicating PWs approaching two inches
over this area as the nocturnal low level jet results in moisture
pooling along a low level frontal zone. This is also in
conjunction with 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE per the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. An upper level jet maxima centered over Nebraska
and Iowa will also aid in ascent over this region through the
early morning hours.
Recent high-res model runs, including the HRRR, are suggesting the
potential for 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts in a swath from the
greater Wichita area to near Tulsa. Although higher flash flood
guidance values over eastern Oklahoma may initially be a
mitigating factor, high rainfall rates may be enough to overcome
this limitation. Flash flooding is possible where convective
elements train and repeatedly back-build with this MCS.
D. Hamrick
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...
LAT...LON 38279720 38149637 37809557 37079479 35979457
35089462 34849545 34909647 35269733 35949813
36619860 37109877 37809870 38229800
Last Updated: 458 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018