Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 AM EDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Areas affected...Northern South Carolina, central North Carolina,
south-central Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021327Z - 021657Z

SUMMARY...Convection continues to percolate across central North
Carolina, generally aligning along an axis of southerly
unidirectional flow. Expect flash flooding to occur, particularly
in regions which have experienced heavy rainfall the past couple
of weeks...

DISCUSSION...Early morning GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite
imagery depicted enhanced Cb towers extending from south-central
Virginia down into North Carolina. Much of the embedded convection
has proven to align relatively well with the mean steering flow.
On a larger scale, hourly rainfall rates have stayed around the 1
to 1.50 inch range. However, more locally, some recent reports of
over 2 inche rates have been noted in the vicinity of
Winston-Salem, North Carolina. This has brought storm totals up to
around 3 to 4 inches to the east of the city.

Looking ahead, recent visible satellite imagery has shown cooling
tops accompanied by a few lightning strikes. Given substantial
morning instability coupled with the favorable unidirectional flow
regime, would expect additional heavy rainfall and associated
flash flood concerns to persist the next few hours.
High-resolution guidance seems to be most in favor of the northern
activity with some mixed signal to the south. However, recent
observational trends suggests a non-zero threat for flash flood
concerns exists over the latter location.

Rubin-Oster

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37617919 37547875 37127866 36347908 35527945
            34877963 34407978 34258037 34398076 34928086
            35718062 36538025 37177975