Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1242 PM EDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Areas affected...Western NC...Western VA...Eastern and Central
WV...Western MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding POSSIBLE

Valid 031640Z - 032230Z

SUMMARY...Very efficient, slow-moving rains may continue to train
across the region, producing locally heavy accumulations.  This
may cause additional flooding conditions, particularly across
areas already impacted by heavy amounts.

DISCUSSION...Morning upper soundings from RNK, GSO and LWX
continue to show deep saturation through the low to mid levels
with high freezing levels - supporting very efficient warm
rainfall processes.    This moisture interacting with mid-level
energy lifting along the leading edge of the trough, in addition
to right-entrance region upper jet dynamics is expected to
continue to support training precipitation. The consensus of the
the 12 UTC hi-res guidance, along with recent runs of the HRRR,
shows additional locally heavy amounts continuing into the
afternoon hours.  Neighborhood probabilities from the 12 UTC HREF
Mean show a significant threat  for locally heavy amounts on the
order of 2-inches or more this afternoon.  This includes areas
where antecedent soil conditions are wet and flash flood guidance
values are low - suggesting any additional heavy amounts will
cause hydrologic concerns. 

Pereira

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39707887 39197817 38787819 37997861 37547940
            37168008 36108065 35418156 35208249 35178339
            35748262 36458171 37458123 39238093