Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0605
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 PM EDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Ext Northeast NM...Ext Southwest
KS...Ext Northeast OK Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070203Z - 070600Z

SUMMARY...Severe supercells with deeply saturated low levels
producing heavy rainfall as well.  Multiple bouts and cell mergers
possibly pose flash flooding risk.

DISCUSSION...Strong/deepening lee cyclone over SE CO is fairly
deep nearly reaching 7H, with strong northeasterly low level flow
providing the deep moisture pool with sfc Tds banked up to the
Sangre de Cristo Range up to 60 and mid-60s into LAA/LHX. Moderate
upper level diffluence aids updraft evacuation, but north of the
boundary the instability is solid for strong updrafts.   Given
strong updrafts and relatively low freezing levels, large hail is
the main threat, but KDP from PUX does suggest moderate to heavy
rainfall is occurring as well.  Given the total PWATs (mainly
below 7H) in the range of 1.25", suggesting of 1.25-1.5"/hr totals
possible. Mean flow and inflow support fairly fast eastward
propagation of cells, but with return flow from the NE and
continued upstream mid-level forcing, additional cells are
developing in the Sagre de Cristo Range and likely to track
eastward (southeastward) across areas affected by the first bout. 
Given low FFG value in the region (less than 1.5"/hr & 2"/3hr),
flash flooding could be considered possible, especially over Las
Animas county, where cells show some potential for merging as well.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38380330 38160224 37930179 37580167 37240172
            37130207 36940261 36860278 36680326 36740387
            36910426 37060447 37350477 37940440 38330419