Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0606
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071135Z

SUMMARY...Solid Isentropic ascent and anomalous moisture with
training cell profile continue to pose flash flooding risk over
southeast CO over the next 3-4 hours...

DISCUSSION...KPUX depicts a NW to SE boundary that continues to
support scattered cells.  Strong 8-7H southerly winds of 30-40kts
converge and ascend over this boundary.  Deep low level moisture
is being advected along the cool conveyor north of the boundary
with 60F Tds.  Above 6H, the winds quickly veer to westerly
supporting lee pressure falls for this strong convergence but also
supporting the mean cloud motions to align favorably for training.
 KPUX rain rates of 1.5-2"/hr are fairly clean at this point with
very little hail contamination with exception of the strongest
cores. Recent lightning strikes are on an uptick with Cells along
the Sangre de Cristo as well in to western Las Animas to Baca
county.  RAP forecast suggest cold front/cold pool should surge
southward over the next two hours, further distancing the corridor
of highest rainfall totals and best isentropic lift/convective
development, so threat should be winding down toward 10-11z.

QPE of greater than 4" has been estimated in Northern Las Animas
county, which in turn supports OU FLASH maximum values of 800-1000
CFS and QPE/FFG ratios to be well over 2.0 nearing 3.0.  Even with
hail overestimation, these values suggest flash flooding may be
occurring or soon to occur.  Values are starting to approach 1.0
in southwest Otero and starting to leak into southwest Baca county
as well

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38420518 38310449 37630316 37310214 36850210
            37040316 37220417 37760495 38200529