Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0611...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Corrected for Removal of old line in KS/OK...Attn; office line

Areas affected...Bootheel of MO...Western KY...Ext Southern
IL...Ext Northwest TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080613Z - 081130Z

SUMMARY...Developing convective complex with training elements and
deep moisture pose possible flash flooding risk overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV Suite depicts a large scale trof across
the Midwest extending to a sharpening s/w base near S Central MO
providing as well as upper level right jet entrance of 50-70kt 3H
core over central IL to MI for larger scale ascent across the
MS/TN/OH River confluence area.  VWP network depicts 850-7H
confluent low level flow across AR into SE MO that is coincident
with stripe of higher 850-7H moisture slug per CIRA LPW imagery. 
Sfc Tds from northeast AR in the low to mid 70s ascent through
this confluence and lead to total PWATs of 2.0" lifting into this
dynamic ascent region.

Instability is a bit more limited as the saturated profiles have a
bit less lapse rates through the main updraft cores, yet values of
500-1000 J/kg should be sufficient given dynamics for efficient
rainfall production with rates up to 2"/hr.  Cell motions will be
fairly quick toward the ENE, but also be fairly parallel to the
main ascent core/axis in the low levels suggesting some training
is possible.  Totals of 2-3" are likely with these training cells,
though they will be progressing through area well below normal for
rainfall.  This may lead to harder, less absorptive soils for
greater runoff for some potential for flash flooding through 12z.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37808617 36908640 36428860 36219022 36529093
            37049079 37388981 37788805