Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 PM EDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Southern Colorado..Northern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082036Z - 090200Z

Summary....Flash flooding is possible this afternoon into early
evening over portions of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
as slow moving storms form over the higher terrain and then ease
out over the adjacent High Plains.

Discussion...Radar imagery from early this afternoon was showing
increasing coverage of thunderstorms building over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains and west of Interstate 25 in southern Colorado
with a general expansion southward towards New Mexico.  The
airmass is unstable due to afternoon insolation, and this should
continue to be a factor into the late afternoon/early evening.  In
addition, low level upslope flow has set up a region of persistent
moisture flux convergence along the east aspect of the mountains. 

The 12Z HREF started with highest probabilities in southern
Colorado in the afternoon which gradually shifts into northern New
Mexico by early evening, with maximum probabilities where the RAP
was showing the best moisture flux convergence values.  12Z
soundings showed precipitable water values between 0.9 inches and
1.3 inches banked up against the higher terrain with K index
values in the mid 30s out as far east as the Texas panhandle. 
This should open up the possibility for moderate to heavy rainfall
rates, although coverage may not be as much as in the previous
couple of days.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38590506 38030421 37360322 36430303 35280389
            34950508 35390574 36420502 38240552