Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0616
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082115Z - 090215Z

Summary....A localized flash flood threat exists into the evening
hours across portions of North Carolina.

Discussion...Convection has expanded in coverage across portions
of North Carolina this afternoon...developing ahead of a well
defined shortwave over eastern Kentucky. These storms are
developing in an environment characterized by high instability,
MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/KG, and high moisture, PWs around 2".
Thus continue to anticipate the potential for locally intense
rainfall rates.

Cell motions are pretty quick off to the east, which is generally
limiting the duration of heaviest rainfall rates. Although do note
several separate clusters of storms, a few eastward moving north
to south line segments, and a separate west to east segment across
north central North Carolina. This does suggest that some cell
mergers are likely over the next few hours, locally extending the
duration of heavier rates. Also of note is locally heavy
antecedent rainfall that has lowered flash flood guidance (FFG)
some over central NC. The combination of lowered FFG and cell
merger potential, suggests that a localized flash flood threat
exists into the evening hours.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36557968 36497912 36307842 35797856 35367934
            35238023 35288066 35538172 36038152 36318105
            36488058