Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0618
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Southern New York and Extreme Northeast
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082313Z - 090245Z

Summary....Flash flooding is possible this evening over portions
of southern New York and extreme northeast Pennsylvania as
scattered thunderstorms move over an area with low Flash Flood
Guidance.

Discussion...Early evening radar imagery showed scattered
thunderstorms over portions of southern New York which extended a
bit into far northeast Pennsylvania.  Observed rainfall rates of
1.00 inch to 1.25 inches per hour have been reported in the
strongest convection.  While rainfall rates of this magnitude can
generally be handled most of the time, Flash Flood Guidance was as
low as 1 inch per 3 hours.

Higher resolution convective-allowing models suggest that rainfall
rates from the most active convection will possibly approach these
rates for another several hours before cells weaken.  Given fairly
steady forward motion to the convection, any problems should be
confined to the area with the lowest Flash Flood Guidance and not
for a prolonged period of time through about 03Z (although there
may be a brief period of back-building cells through 02Z or so).

Bann

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42977444 42967405 42707401 42347416 42117434
            41747478 41687491 41787544 41747583 41807609
            41897649 42077679 42247667 42477600 42767484