Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Corrected for Ending Valid Time from 2230z to 2300z

Areas affected...Central & South Central KS...North Central OK...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131751Z - 132300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple convective bands with the potential for
training and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite depicts a compact/strong stacked Low
over far northeast NM with baroclinic leaf lifting across western
OK ahead of a strong shortwave feature.  A weakening MCV vorticity
lobe is lifting northwest around the periphery of the deeper low
across central KS.  The orientation of all 3 features allows for
deep moisture flux along the warm conveyor belt from southern TX
pumping very deep/nearly saturated profiles into central KS.  A
weaker cool conveyor belt can also be seen from N AR across
southeast KS toward the MCV, leading to broad moisture flux that
becomes strongly confluent across Central KS into north Central
OK.

Some clearing before the deep cirrus shield built in to support
modest narrow skinny instability profiles with MLCAPEs to 1500
J/kg and Total PWATs after using surface modified 12z LMN
sounding.  With strong DPVA upstream but also flattening 5H-850mb
trof across the region supporting moisture convergence and
convective development from the wake of the MCV in Barton county,
KS to Grant county OK.  The weak inflection between mid-level vort
centers also supports convective growth in a band from Woods, OK
to Barber county, KS as well...all moving with the nearly
unidirectional cloud bearing flow to the NNW.  500-1000mb
thickness fields also suggest very weak propagation vectors to the
east, even as any weak cold pools (given limited dry air mixing)
would develop. 

Limiting factors seem to be related to the modest
instability/convergence along the mid-level confluence trof is
supporting narrower updrafts/downdrafts to make training over a
broader area a bit more difficult for larger areal coverage to
support significant flash flooding.  Additionally, the FFG values
are quite high with 3hr values in the 2-3" range with pockets over
4" near/along Arkansas River Valley.  Still, AHPS rainfall totals
are above average (up to 200%) within a triangle from HYS to SLN
to just E of PTT and extending from PTT to WLD.  With these
limiting factors, and rainfall totals to 2-4" possible in the
training, flash flooding is considered possible. 

Will be watching closely, convective expansion along the cool
conveyor/frontal boundary into Southeast KS for continued
convective coverage/growth capable of flash flooding, but at this
point, the coverage is a bit too scattered to include with this
MPD. 

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39719868 39589805 39119724 38849694 38239669
            37759663 37199674 36599723 36489744 36459779
            36859818 36879864 37169895 37729884 38039884
            38359902 38699930 39269951 39629935