Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0657
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...western KS into northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140628Z - 141215Z

SUMMARY...Small scale and slow moving/training thunderstorms are
expected to impact portions of western KS into northwest OK
through 12Z. 2-4 inches of rain in an 2-3 hour window will be
possible which may cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 06Z showed a well defined
upper level cyclone centered over northwest OK and related comma
head/deformation axis over western KS into southern NE. A 700 mb
low was analyzed over north-central KS with a corridor of 20-25 kt
winds sampled by the KDDC VAD wind profile. ML and MUCAPE over KS
was rather weak (500-1000 J/kg) via the latest SPC mesoanalysis
page but moisture was high with precipitable water values ranging
from 1.25 inches across western KS to 1.75 inches in central KS
according to the latest RAP analysis. KDDC radar over the past
hour has shown an uptick in convection over Finney, Gray and Ford
counties with cell movement off toward the southeast at 15-25 kt.

The expectation over the next couple of hours is for small cores
of heavy rain to increase in number across southwestern KS into
perhaps extreme northwest portions of OK. The elevated nature of
these storms are expected to train given the northwesterly flow at
700 mb helping to focus locally heavy rainfall. 2-4 inches is
expected within a 2-3 hour window over portions of the MPD threat
area which would be in excess of Flash Flood Guidance in many
locations due to recent rainfall across the region.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40049879 39789819 39319794 38759788 37779803
            36969862 36589924 36550006 36830084 37450123
            37860143 38470129 39030070 39849999 40039934