Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0670
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Northern NY...Southern VT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152140Z - 160130Z

SUMMARY...Growing MCC with embedded training cells to cross into N
NY and pose possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite, depicts and exiting shortwave
across ME with sharpening shortwave ridging across far E Ontario
into N New York before stronger/sharper shortwave digs in from the
northwest.  As such a favorable upper level environment exists for
upscale growth of ongoing convective cluster.   As such moisture
has pooled in this pocket and totals to around 1.75" providing
ample moisture for efficient rainfall generation.  KTYX KDP loops
suggest severe hail to rob some of the moisture for heavy
rainfall, but given the density of the small hail, yet rates of
1.5"/hr are likely and given the training orientation, totals of
2-4" are possible especially across Jefferson/St. Lawrence toward
Hamilton county, where an isolated cell is tracking as well.  FFG
values are fairly high across far northeast NY but given rainfall
from yesterday there are some susceptible locations especially in
Oswego/Jefferson and western St. Lawrence counties where FFG area
below expected hourly totals and more likely below 3HR totals
given training mentality expected with the complex.  As such flash
flooding is considered possible this evening.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   44957511 44207415 43967270 43037284 42777407
            43387583 43687626 44057642 44457609 44767557