Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0683
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...CO...NM...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172005Z - 180205Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms focusing over the higher
terrain will gradually begin to develop and evolve over the High
Plains over the next few hours. Some flash flooding will be
possible.

Discussion...Radar and satellite imagery has been showing an
uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain
of central/southern CO and central NM, with an emphasis on the
Sangre De Cristo range, and also areas farther north near the
Front Range and Palmer Divide. The convection is developing in
response to strong diurnal heating and a relatively moist column
that is fostering plenty of instability. There is plenty of
orographic support over the high elevations with terrain
circulations helping to locally anchor and focus convection.
Meanwhile, just to the east over the CO High Plains, there is a
notable low level upslope flow regime with east-southeast flow
noted north of a frontal zone that is draped across the region.

Over the next few hours, the convection that has been over the
higher terrain will tend to locally regenerate, but expect much
more focus of convection out across areas of northeast NM, central
and southeast CO, and including areas near the Front Range and the
Palmer Divide where much stronger boundary layer instability is
pooled. Thunderstorms here will tend to be slow-moving while also
capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hr given the
very moist low level upslope fetch.

Expect rainfall amounts of as much as 2 to 4 inches locally
through mid-evening as convection advances generally off to the
southeast and attempts to organize into an MCS over the High
Plains. Some flash flooding will be possible given these totals.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...EPZ...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40330517 40220453 39920389 39300326 38300254
            37560224 36920174 36130072 35520033 34860049
            34770126 35550250 35740323 35450409 34910469
            33800514 32960526 32720548 32730550 32810595
            33280644 34060668 34770678 35650695 36530708
            37000700 37250744 37440792 38020798 38390771
            38920674 39880618 40250575