Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0734
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Areas affected...Northern Missouri through central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290520Z - 291020Z

Summary...A convective cluster over northern Missouri and western
Illinois will move east ahead of a cold front. Repeating activity
will lead to quick local 2 to 3 inch rainfall and possible flash
flooding.

Discussion...This east-west oriented boundary will continue
progress east with a cold pool to the north and strong low level
flow veering from southerly at the sfc to southwesterly at 850mb.
Precipitable water up to 2.1 inches per GPS data is with this
activity corridor and 2000 J/Kg MUCAPE will continue to advect in
with the low level flow.

While Flash Flood Guidance values are relatively high (2 inches in
1 hr), one hour rain rates around 2 inches are seen over western
Illinois from the KILX. Given the orientation of the activity, the
duration of heaviest rain is likely to exceed an hour. Rainfall of
3-5" is likely across much of the highlighted swath.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40728918 40528776 39338775 39188908 39149112
            39189319 40459240 40559096