Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KS and southwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301412Z - 301912Z

Summary...Convection has become more west to east oriented this
morning to the north of a stationary front draped across the
Southern Plains.  Training of cells likely along and north of this
front through the remainder of this morning...producing  hourly
rainfall amounts of 2"+ and totals of 3-5".

Discussion...Convection that was fairly progressive earlier this
morning to the  north of the west to east stationary front across
the Southern Plains has become aligned more in a west to east
direction.  This is leading to increased training along and north
of this front and with flash flooding likely in areas of training
from southeast Kansas into Southwest Missouri.  This activity is
forming in an axis of mu-cape values 3000+ j/kg in the vicinity of
this front and pw values 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the
mean . Much of the hi res guidance from 0000 UTC and the latest
NAM conest from 1200 UTC are not handling this activity
well...showing the typical bias of being underdone with respect to
the simulated radars.  These models suggest more progression to
the east and southeast...but radar trends suggest training will
continue to be a possibility through the remainder of this
morning. 

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38409547 38409485 38249377 37869249 37659195
            37059155 36519154 36219179 36289274 36689485
            37039560 37609605 38119587