Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0748
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...Central/Northern KS...Southeast NE...Far
northwest MO...Central/Southwest IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030255Z - 030655Z

Summary...Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue over the next few hours. Some additional flash flooding
will be possible.

Discussion...The latest radar imagery continues to show a broken
axis of showers and thunderstorms across areas of central/northern
KS and up across southeast NE. The convection continues to focus
out ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave over the central High
Plains and generally along and north of a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary that is acting in effect as a front.

Broad warm air advection associated with deep layer
south/southwest flow will continue to focus plenty of moisture and
at least modest instability across the region over the next few
hours which should tend to sustain the convective threat, and
especially with proximity of weak right-entrance region jet
dynamics. However, the convective organization will likely tend to
wane as instability becomes more exhausted and also with rather
weak low level wind fields. Shear profiles are rather weak as
well, and thus supportive of a general weakening/disorganized
convective character going toward 06Z.

Nevertheless, the latest HRRR guidance supports some additional
rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches going through 06Z.
Given some of the recent heavy rainfall, these additional totals
may result in some additional flash flooding over the next few
hours. Will continue to monitor.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42149367 41639241 40529240 40099479 39429601
            38609698 37409816 37109955 37110016 37580050
            38739972 39999869 41219712 42039519