Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0755
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Areas affected...Vicinity of Southwest KS & Northern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031918Z - 032348Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage in this area. 
Cell collisions and training could yield hourly totals to 2" and
local amounts to 4"

Discussion...Clouds are beginning to thin across this area which
is allowing convection to expand in coverage and intensity ahead
of an upper level trough located across the southern Rockies. 
Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.9" per GPS data.  Inflow at
850 hPa is southeast at 10-20 knots.  SPC mesoanalyses show
effective bulk shear of 25 kts in the region.  ML CAPE values are
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range.

The biggest heavy rain threat appears to be upcoming cell
collisions between the incoming convection across northwest OK
from the southeast and the activity edging eastward across
southwest KS, which has been occasionally backbuilding.  The
mesoscale guidance shows 1"+ an hour rain rates peaking in the
19-23z period.  Local amounts in the 4" range are indicated by the
guidance, which would further saturated soils left prone by
rainfall near the OK/TX panhandle border Wednesday night and
across southern KS over the past few days.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38649984 38579954 37859934 37089918 35489904
            36380066 38130031