Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0768...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely versus Flash Flooding Possible

Areas affected...Southern MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050205Z - 050805Z

Summary...Tropical Storm Gordon will be making landfall across
southern MS very within the next couple of hours. Heavy rainfall
already impacting the western FL panhandle and southern AL will
advance northwest across areas of southern MS over the next
several hours. Flooding and flash flooding will be likely.

Discussion...Very heavy rainfall in association with Tropical
Storm Gordon will continue to overrun the central Gulf Coast
region through the overnight hours as the storm makes a landfall
and moves northwest across southern MS. The latest GOES-16
satellite imagery overall has been showing some warming of the
cloud tops with Gordon over the last few hours, with exception of
the immediate north side of the circulation which in the last hour
has shown some cooling cloud tops. There remains a rather
well-defined axis of deep convection with very heavy rainfall
rates around the northern and northeast quads of the system, and
it will be these rains that move ashore overnight and producing
areas of flooding and flash flooding.

Expect rainfall rates to be on the order of 2 to 3 inches/hr
within the stronger convective bands that focus in across far
southern AL and southern MS through the overnight hours, and the
major concern will be the trailing bands of convection that will
tend to train over the same area as the system moves farther
inland.

A consensus of the 12Z/18Z HREF blended mean QPF and HRRR guidance
favors as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain through 08Z with isolated
amounts of 5+ inches where more organized training of cells set
up. This will result in areas of flooding and flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31908876 31568768 31198716 30788696 30438697
            30228728 30148798 30248863 30508938 30938984
            31439020 31868992