Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0772
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Areas affected...Far Northern OK...Central/Eastern KS...Far
Southeast NE...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050910Z - 051510Z

Summary...Expecting an axis of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms to develop through mid and late morning. Some flash
flooding will be possible.

Discussion...The latest radar imagery shows a broken axis of
showers and thunderstorms across the broader central Plains region
which is all associated with a deep layer south to southwest warm
advection pattern with anomalous tropical moisture transport and
sufficient instability, MLCAPE values near 1000 j/kg, to sustain
convection.

Over the next several hours, and especially toward mid-morning,
there will be a cold front with multiple waves of low pressure
settling southeast across the central Plains and more specifically
the lower MO Valley which will be interacting with PWATS of as
much as 2.0 to 2.25 inches and an increasingly unstable boundary
layer. Meanwhile, as an upper trough crosses the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, the region is expected to come under the
influence of favorable right-entrance region jet dynamics which
will foster deeper layer ascent for a more organized convective
threat in a southwest/northeast fashion extending from northern OK
up across central/eastern KS and northeast toward southern IA.
This is expected to occur in earnest after 12Z.

The latest 00Z hires model consensus, along with recent runs of
the HRRR, strongly suggest some linear bands of convection capable
of training over the same area by mid to late morning. Expect
rainfall rates of as much as 2 inches/hr with the renewed
activity, and new storm totals of as much as 4 inches locally by
15Z. This may result in some flash flooding. Will closely monitor
convective trends through the morning.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41049371 40939317 40509257 39639307 38839405
            38349453 37569523 36459602 36279687 36629738
            37549728 38429769 39269759 40139669 40689530
            40989433