Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0773
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Areas affected...Western Florida Panhandle...southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051414Z - 052014Z

Summary...The greatest heavy rain threat continues on the
southeast side of Gordon in the persistent moist southerly inflow
band off the northeastern Gulf.  Training of cells in a south to
north direction will continue the threat of additional flash
flooding through this morning into early afternoon from the
western Florida Panhandle into southwest Alabama.

Discussion...While Gordon continues to weaken inland across
central Mississippi this morning...the flash flood threat will
continue for the remainder of this morning into early afternoon on
the southeast side of the storm.   The latest radar loops continue
to show south to north moving area of precipitation in the
southerly low level inflow band on the southeast side of this
storm. PW values in this inflow band will remain 2+ standard
deviations above the mean...along with MU-CAPE values of 2000+
j/kg.   Low level convergent flow will remain well defined in this
high PW axis...but trending weaker with time late this morning
into early afternoon...signaling a decreasing heavy rain threat by
late morning/early afternoon. 

In areas of training...additional 2"+ per hour rainfall totals
possible.  Latest hrrr guidance suggests this will be most likely
over the western Florida Panhandle into southwestern Alabama.

Farther to the northwest, closer to the circulation center of
Gordon, the flash flood threat is considerably less at the moment.
 Convection remains absent near the center...with most of the
latest hi res guidance showing precip totals that should not
produce a significant flash flood threat through the remainder of
this morning.  Can not rule out isolated flooding closer to the
center of circulation...but at the moment...this region was not
included in the current mesoscale precipitation discussion area.

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32908801 32758753 31358678 29728661 29078694
            29078734 29408795 30418809 31678794 32518817