Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0779
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
819 AM EDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Areas affected...Northwest Mississippi...southeast Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061217Z - 061817Z

Summary...T.D. Gordon will continue to drift slowly westward this
morning across southeast Arkansas.  A band of south to  north
training cells likely to continue on the eastern side of the
circulation...continuing the flash flood threat.

Discussion...This is an update of mesoscale precipitation
discussion #0078 that expired 1230 UTC.  A well defined south to
north oriented precipitation area expected to persist to the east
of Gordon this morning as the depression slowly pushes westward
across southeast Arkansas.  The overall slow westward movement to
the depresssion will also result in only a slow movement to this
south to north oriented precipitation area to its east.  Training
of cells in a south to north direction likely through this
morning.  In areas of training...small scale areas of 1.5-2"+ per
hour rainfall rates likely.  The overall areal extent of the heavy
to excessive rainfall near Gordon is expected to remain small
today...but still remain significant given the slow movement and
warm rain processes. 

In addition to the south to north training cells to the east of
Gordon...the latest hi res guidance...including the latest hrrr
runs..do suggest slow moving cells may develop closer to the
center of circulation over southeast Arkansas.  For this reason,
the risk area was extended westward into southeast Arkansas. 
Hourly rainfall rates of 1"+ possible with these slow moving cells.

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35079102 34809029 33788976 33128975 32548994
            32419018 32479036 32679047 32889051 33089071
            33169099 33249138 33399189 33629238 33999247
            34369243 34769212 34969167