Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0789
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Areas affected...West Texas...south central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071213Z - 071813Z

Summary...A broad region of potentially slow moving convection
likely to continue this morning across West Texas into south
central Oklahoma.

Discussion...Convection is beginning to become more organized in a
broad region of anomalous PW values...standard deviations 2.0 to
2.5+ above the mean...stretching across portions of the Southern
Plains from West Texas into south central Oklahoma.  This region
will remain in a favorable upper difluence region of the right
entrance of the jet across the Southern High Plains...continuing
to support enhanced lift in this high PW axis.  Efficient warm
rain processes expected to persist this period with freezing
levels approximately 13000 ft as per GFS model soundings across
the threat region. 

The latest hi res guidance from 0000 utc (arw and nmmb) is behind
the curve with respect to current convection over northwest Texas.
 This trend is even worse in the 0600 utc nam conest which does
not have the current activity over northwest Texas.  While the hi
res guidance is poor with current activity...they all do show
enhancement this morning in the threat area.  The latest HRRR TLE
probabilities show 50-60% chance of 3" over the next 6 hours over
the southeast portion of WFO LUB into the northeast portion of WFO
MAF.  HREF probabilities for 2" are about 50 nm to the east of the
HRRR TLE axis...showing probabilities as high as 70% over far
southeast LUB WFO into the border region of WFO MAF and SJT.  With
the potential for slow moving cells and efficient warm rain
processes...isolated rainfall totals of 3-5" possible.

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35689751 35339691 34749683 34129706 33429784
            32439917 31749963 30619976 29740009 29580052
            29500100 29430164 29500201 29840230 30250242
            30960259 31430265 32040251 32120252 33290163
            33720092 34389927 35079805