Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0843...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1140 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Corrected for TYPO

Areas affected...southeatern to south-central NC...northeastern to
north-central SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151515Z - 152115Z

Summary...An additional 6-10 inches of rain is expected to
exacerbate ongoing catastrophic flooding/flash flooding across
portions of southeastern NC. Additional flash flooding will remain
possible for locations across southeastern into south-central NC
and far northeastern to north-central SC.

Discussion...At NHC advisory time, Florence was located over
Williamsburg County, SC.  Florence is expected to continue to move
very slowly to the west today, with NHC indicating a forward speed
of only 2 to 5 kts through the afternoon.  KMHX indicates the
persistence on an intense rain band east of center entering the
coast across Pender County, NC.  Radar estimated rainfall rates
within this band are as much as 2-3 in/hr.

The integrity of the rain band is not expected to change much over
the next few hours given the availability of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
just off of the NC coast, combined with 50-60 kt of southeasterly
850 mb winds providing extreme moisture transport across the
southeastern NC coastline.   Strong low level winds with weak flow
aloft is expected to support the threat for back-building rains --
further raising the potential for heavy amounts across this
region.  This is supported by  the hi-res model consensus, which
show additional heavy rainfall totals extending from the Cape Fear
and Crystal Coast regions of NC toward south-central NC and far
north-central SC.  While a slight westward drift to the rain band
is expected over the next 3-6 hours, comparison with current radar
returns suggests some of the hi-res guidance may be a little too
far southwest with their axes of heaviest amounts.  That said,
over the next several hours expect the heaviest amounts to center
from Onslow to New Hanover counties along the coast toward
Cumberland and Hoke counties inland.  Additional totals of 6-10
inches are possible within this region.  This will only exacerbate
the ongoing dangerous flooding conditions across the region.   

Pereira

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35657861 34817700 34227701 33737759 33567831
            33207866 33027918 33887886 34547967 34648098
            35138095 35558022