Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0928
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
918 PM EDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Areas affected...West-Central to Northwest TX...South-Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070115Z - 070715Z

Summary...Slow-moving and locally repeating showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and some
flash flooding over the next several hours.

Discussion...The latest satellite imagery has been showing an
expansion and cooling of convective tops across areas of
west-central to northwest TX and across the Red River into
south-central OK as a front draped across the region interacts
with a moist and moderately unstable airmass pooled along it.
PWATs across thee region are running between 1.6 and 1.8 inches
which is about 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of
the year.

There is some subtle indication in the GOES-16 RGB Airmass imagery
of a weak shortwave upstream over southeast NM and far west TX
that is ejecting out to the northeast and this coupled with
favorable upper-level right-entrance region jet dynamics on the
larger scale will likely help to further enhance the shower and
thunderstorm activity along the front.

The latest hires model guidance suggests convection will be fairly
slow-moving and at least semi-organized along the front over the
next several hours, and capable of producing heavy rainfall
totals. Some repeating cell activity is expected, and thus the
expectation is for as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain with locally
heavier amounts. Some flash flooding will be possible as a result.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35229671 35199582 34679574 33609653 32559762
            31929866 31469961 31530029 31920055 32460033
            33239917 34019827 34559760