Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0930
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 PM EDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest and
Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070330Z - 070900Z

Summary...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the next several hours. Some localized flash
flooding concerns will remain overnight.

Discussion...The latest IR/WV satellite imagery depicts a
shortwave impulse advancing northeast up across central and
eastern KS at this time which continues to interact with a frontal
zone that is stalling out across portions of eastern OK and
northeast across southwest MO and over into southern IL. The
result over the last few hours has been several clusters of
showers and thunderstorms that have been lifting northeast along
and to the northwest of the front. A pool of modest instability is
pooled up along the boundary with MUCAPE values of near 1000 j/kg,
but a large degree of the convection has elevated in nature.

Over the next few hours, there will continue to be a focus for
heavy showers and thunderstorms with much of the attention likely
on west-central MO where there will be a bit stronger shortwave
dynamics in place and large scale ascent. However, some additional
clusters of convection will likely continue to lift northeast from
northeast OK and up across far southwest MO which will be aligned
closer to the front and better instability axis. Some of these
areas have already seen heavy rainfall this evening, and the
additional rainfall will only enhance concerns for at least
localized flash flooding.

Expect as much as an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated heavier amounts going through 09Z. The flash flood threat
should remain localized in nature, but the convective trends will
continue to be monitored.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39419327 39199200 38699126 38039137 37599243
            36959327 36689376 36359454 36189545 36419600
            36829606 38009528 38729469 39269404