Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
924 AM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071324Z - 071600Z

Summary...Slow-moving and repeating showers and thunderstorms will
continue through mid-morning.  The risk of flash flooding will
continue over Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas due to the
ground becoming increasingly saturated.

Discussion...Latest satellite imagery over the last few hours has
continued to show a gradual backing of the mid and upper-level
flow across the broader Southern Plains region.  This is resulting
in an increase in deep layer ascent/forcing mainly over Oklahoma
and a small amount of nearby areas of west-central Texas.

Activity this morning has been focused in vicinity of a
quasi-stationary frontal zone with modest instability
characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg. PWATS across
the region are running between 1.6 and 1.8 inches which is again
about 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of the year.

Given an increasingly diffluent flow pattern aloft and favorable
upper-level right-entrance region jet dynamics on the larger
scale, the ongoing convective activity is expected to linger
through mid-morning.  There may be a gradual decrease in coverage
later this morning as the low level jet weakens.

The latest HRRR guidance favors as much as 1 to 3 inches of
additional rain with locally higher amounts through 16Z.  These
amounts are supported by the 00Z run of the ARW/ARW2 although
differences linger with respect to the placement of the heaviest
rainfall.

Given the additional rainfall potential and with the ground
becoming increasingly saturated, the threat for flash flooding is
expected continue through mid-morning.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36979652 36289608 34849619 33779702 33259927
            33170053 35010043 36289932