Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into Western Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072048Z - 080248Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms expected into this evening over
area of western OK/northern TX that has been soaked today.

Discussion...A shortwave trough is noted in 2030 UTC GOES-16
mid-level water vapor imagery just reaching the southern end of
the TX panhandle. A cluster of thunderstorms this is area is
apparent per regional radars. This activity will continue to ride
a strengthening SSWly jet to the west OK border, arriving to the
area of western OK which has experience rain over the past several
hours around 00Z per the AWIPS time of arrival tool.

Activity this afternoon has been focused in vicinity of a slow
warm front with modest instability (MLCAPE 1500 to 2000 j/kg) per
recent RAP analysis. 1.5 to 1.75" PW over this area is a 2 to 2.5
standardized anomaly. 2 to 4" have fallen 20 to 60 nm west of the
KFDR WSR-88D. Surface, low level and deep layer southerly flow
will allow additional thunderstorms to redevelop and repeat ahead
of the shortwave trough as indicated by the 19Z HRRR.

Given the additional rainfall potential and with much of this
ground saturated, the possible threat for flash flooding is
expected continue through this evening.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36019853 35109809 33909861 33109959 34050060
            35729943